Learn&Record: Is South Korea Disappearing?
近日，韩国总统尹锡悦正式宣布韩国进入“人口国家紧急状态” ，将采取措施解决超低出生率问题。尹锡悦表
示，如果不扭转低生育老龄化趋势，韩国的人口最终可能会灭绝
From: The New York Times, Dec. 2, 2023
中文文本为纽约时报官方译文，仅供参考
For some time now, South Korea has been a striking case study in the depopulation problem that hangs over the developed world. Almost all rich countries have seen their birthrates settle below replacement level, but usually that means somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.5 children per woman. For instance in 2021 the United States stood at 1.7, France at 1.8, Italy at 1.3 and Canada at 1.4.
在困扰发达国家的人口衰减问题上，韩国成为突出案例已有一段时间了。几乎所有富裕国家的生育率都低于更替水平，但每名女性平均生育1.5名子女是比较常见的情况。比如在2021年，美国生育率为1.7，法国为1.8，意大利为1.3，加拿大为1.4。
striking/ˈstraɪ.kɪŋ/1）表示“异乎寻常的，惊人的；引人注目的；显著的；不同寻常的”，英文解释为“Something that is striking is very noticeable or unusual.”
举个🌰：
The most striking feature of those statistics is the high proportion of suicides.
那些统计数据最显著的特征是高自杀率。
2）表示“俊秀的；妩媚动人的；很有魅力的”，英文解释为“Someone who is striking is very attractive, in a noticeable way.”
举个🌰：
She was a striking woman with long blonde hair.
她曾是一个留着金色长发的俊秀女子。
case study/ˈkeɪs ˌstʌd.i/表示“（尤指为说明一般原则而作的）个案研究”，英文解释为“a detailed account giving information about the development of a person, group, or thing, especially in order to show general principles”
举个🌰：
This is an interesting psychiatric case study of a child with extreme behavioural difficulties.
这是一份很有意思的精神病个案研究，研究对象是一个有严重行为障碍的小孩。
hang/hæŋ/1）表示“悬挂，吊；吊着”，英文解释为“to fasten or support something at the top leaving the other parts free to move, or to be held in this way”
举个🌰：
A heavy gold necklace hung around her neck.
她脖子上挂着一串粗重的金项链。
2）表示“绞死，施以绞刑”，英文解释为“to kill someone, especially as punishment for a serious crime, by dropping them with a rope tied around their neck, or to die in this way”
举个🌰：
He was found guilty and hanged later that year.
他被判有罪，并在那年的晚些时候被施以绞刑。
📍
hang over sth表示“（威胁或疑虑）笼罩，萦绕”，英文解释为“If a threat or doubt hangs over a place or a situation, it
exists.”举个🌰：
Uncertainty again hangs over the project.
这个项目又一次变得不确定起来。
replacement/rɪˈpleɪs.mənt/表示“更换，替换”，英文解释为“the process of replacing something with something else”
举个🌰：
the replacement of existing computer equipment
更换现有的计算机设备。
📍
replacement level更替水平指的是足以维持人口世代更新、人数不增不减的生育率水平。
But South Korea is distinctive in that it slipped into below-replacement territory in the 1980s but lately has been falling even more — dropping below one child per woman in 2018, to 0.8 after the pandemic, and now, in provisional data for both the second and third quarters of 2023, to just 0.7 births per woman.
韩国的不同之处在于，它在上世纪80年代就已经下滑到更替水平以下，但近年的下滑更为严重——2018年每名女性就生育不到一名子女，疫情后降至0.8人，而从2023年第二和第三季度的初步数据来看，韩国每名女性如今仅生育0.7人。
distinctive/dɪˈstɪŋk.tɪv/表示“与众不同的，独特的，特别的”，英文解释为“Something that is distinctive is easy to recognize because it is different from other things.”
举个🌰：
a distinctive smell/taste
特别的气味/味道。
territory/ˈter.ɪ.tər.i/表示“领土；领域；领地；活动范围”，英文解释为“(an area of) land, or sometimes sea, that is considered as belonging to or connected with a particular country or person”
举个🌰：
He was shot down in enemy territory.
他在敌方领土上被击落。
provisional/prəˈvɪʒ.ən.əl/表示“临时的，暂时的，暂定的”，英文解释为“likely or able to be changed in the future” 副词 provisionally，
举个🌰：
We accept provisional bookings by phone.
我们接受电话临时预约。
It’s worth unpacking what that means. A country that sustained a birthrate at that level would have, for every 200 people in one generation, 70 people in the next one, a depopulation exceeding what the Black Death delivered to Europe in the 14th century. Run the experiment through a second generational turnover, and your original 200-person population falls below 25. Run it again, and you’re nearing the kind of population crash caused by the fictional superflu in Stephen King’s “The Stand.”
我们应对这一现状进行深入剖析。如果一个国家的出生率维持在这样的水平，那就意味着这一代中的200人到下一代只会剩下70人，这比14世纪黑死病在欧洲造成的人口锐减还要厉害。当把这70人的一代再来一轮更替，原来的200人只剩下不到25人。再来一轮，差不多就是斯蒂芬·金在小说《末日逼近》（The Stand）里虚构的超级流感来袭时人口崩溃的场面了。
unpack/ʌnˈpæk/1）表示“解释；说明”，英文解释为“to explain or examine something in order to make its meaning clearer”
举个🌰：
He read the agreed statement to the group and then began to unpack it for them.
他把已达成一致的声明读给这群人听，然后开始向他们解释其意义。
2）表示“从（箱、包）中取出；打开箱包”，英文解释为“to remove things from a suitcase, bag, or box”
举个🌰：
I haven’t even had time to unpack (my suitcase/clothes).
我甚至还没有时间打开箱子整理/把衣服从箱子里拿出来。
sustain/səˈsteɪn/1）表示“保持，维持，使持续，使继续”，英文解释为“to cause or allow something to continue for a period of time”
举个🌰：
The economy looks set to sustain its growth into next year.
看来经济的增长会持续到明年。
2）表示“经历，遭受（尤指破坏或损失）”，英文解释为“to suffer or experience, especially damage or loss”
举个🌰：
She sustained multiple injuries in the accident.
她在这次事故中多处受伤。
exceed/ɪkˈsiːd/ 表示“超过，超出（数量）；超越（规定的范围）”，英文解释为“to be greater than a number or amount, or to go past an allowed limit”举个🌰：
The final cost should not exceed ￥100.
最终的花费不应超出100元。
📍词根“-ceed”表示"走，去"，前缀“ex-”表示"出，超出"。
近义词：surpass（超过），同根词：proceed（进行），succeed（成功）
turnover/ˈtɜːnˌəʊ.vər/1）表示“（一定时期内的）营业额，成交量”，英文解释为“the amount of business that a company does in a period of time”
举个🌰：
Large supermarkets have high turnovers (= their goods sell very quickly).
大型超市的货品销售量很大。
2）表示“人事变更率；人员调整率”，英文解释为“the rate at which employees leave a company and are replaced by other people”
举个🌰：
a high turnover of staff
很高的人员变更率。
By the standards of newspaper columnists I am a low-birthrate alarmist, but in some ways I consider myself an optimist. Just as the overpopulation panic of the 1960s and 1970s mistakenly assumed that trends would simply continue upward without adaptation, I suspect a deep pessimism about the downward trajectory of birthrates — the kind that imagines a 22nd-century America dominated by the Amish, say — underrates human adaptability, the extent to which populations that flourish amid population decline will model a higher-fertility future and attract converts over
time.
按照报纸专栏作家的标准，我算是低生育率问题上的杞人忧天者。但在某些方面，我觉得自己还是个乐观主义者。就像在上世纪六七十年代人口过剩的恐慌曾经造成这样一种误解，即过剩趋势只会继续上升而不会有任何改变，我认为对出生率下降趋势的极度悲观情绪——比如预测22世纪的美国将由阿米什人主宰——低估了人的适应能力，低估了在人口衰减过程中繁衍下来的人类将如何塑造生育率更高的未来，并逐渐吸引更多人决定生育。
columnist/ˈkɒl.əm.nɪst/表示“（报纸、杂志的）专栏作家”，英文解释为“someone who writes a regular article for a newspaper or magazine”
举个🌰：
a gossip/sports columnist
漫谈/体育专栏作家。
alarmist/əˈlɑː.mɪst/表示“危言耸听者，靠散布危险言论制造恐慌的人”，英文解释为“someone who makes people worried by telling them about bad or dangerous things when it is not necessary or helpful”
assume/əˈsjuːm/1）表示“假定；假设；认为”，英文解释为“to think or accept that sth is true but without having proof of it”
举个🌰：
It is generally assumed that stress is caused by too much work.
普遍认为，紧张是工作过重所致。
2）表示“承担，担任；僭取，夺取；呈现，具有”，英文解释为“to take or begin to have responsibility or control, sometimes without the right to do so, or to begin to have a characteristic”
举个🌰：
The new president assumes office at midnight tonight.
新总统在今晚午夜就职。
adaptation/ˌæd.əpˈteɪ.ʃən/1）表示“适应”，英文解释为“the process of changing to suit different conditions”
2）表示“（电影、书、剧本等的）改编”，英文解释为“a film, book, play, etc. that has been made from another film, book, play,
etc.”
pessimism/ˈpes.ɪ.mɪ.zəm/表示“悲观情绪；悲观主义”，英文解释为“emphasizing or thinking of the bad part of a situation rather than the good part, or the feeling that bad things are more likely to happen than good things”
举个🌰：
An underlying pessimism infuses all her novels.
她所有的小说中都暗含着一种悲观主义情绪。
trajectory/trəˈdʒek.tər.i/表示“（射体在空中的）轨道，轨迹”，英文解释为“the curved path that an object follows after it has been thrown or shot into the air”
举个🌰：
the trajectory of a bullet/missile
子弹/导弹的弹道。
underrate/ˌʌn.dəˈreɪt/表示“对…估计过低，低估”，英文解释为“to fail to understand how skilful, important, etc. someone or something is”
举个🌰：
The company has consistently underrated the importance of a well-trained workforce.
这个公司一贯低估一支训练有素的员工队伍的重要性。
flourish/ˈflʌr.ɪʃ/表示“茁壮成长；繁荣；蓬勃发展”，英文解释为“to grow or develop successfully”
举个🌰：
My tomatoes are flourishing this summer - it must be the warm weather.
今年夏天我的西红柿长势很好——这一定是天气暖和的原因。
fertility/fəˈtɪl.ə.ti/表示“富饶；丰产；生殖力；能生育性；可繁殖性”，英文解释为“the state of being fertile”
举个🌰：
a fertility symbol
生殖力的象征，
declining fertility rates
下降的生育率，
the fertility of the soil/land
土壤的肥沃；土地的丰饶，
a god of fertility
丰收之神，
fertility treatment (= medical help given to a person to help them have a baby)
不孕症治疗。
convert/kənˈvɜːt/作动词，
1）表示“转变”，英文解释为“If one thing is converted or converts into another, it is changed into a different form.”
举个🌰：
The signal will be converted into digital code.
信号将被转变成数字编码。
2）表示“改建”，英文解释为“If someone converts a room or building, they alter it in order to use it for a different purpose.”
举个🌰：
By converting the attic, they were able to have two extra bedrooms.
通过改建阁楼，他们又多出了两间卧室。
3）表示“改装”，英文解释为“If you convert a vehicle or piece of equipment, you change it so that it can use a different fuel.”
举个🌰：
Save money by converting your car to run on used vegetable oil.
通过改装你的汽车使其燃烧用过的植物油来省钱。
4）表示“换算”，英文解释为“If you convert a quantity from one system of measurement to another, you calculate what the quantity is in the second system.”
举个🌰：
Converting metric measurements to U.S. equivalents is easy.
把公制度量衡换算成美制度量衡很容易。
5）表示“改变信仰”，英文解释为“If someone converts you, they persuade you to change your religious or political beliefs. You can also say that someone converts to a different religion.”
举个🌰：
If you try to convert him, you could find he just walks away.
如果你想让他改变信仰，他会扭头就走。
作名词，
convert/ˈkɒn.vɜːt/表示“改变信仰（或习惯、生活方式）的人”，英文解释为“someone who changes their beliefs, habits, or way of living”
举个🌰：
a Christian convert
皈依基督教者，
a convert to vegetarianism / wholemeal bread
改食素食者 / 全麦面包者。
In that spirit of optimism, I don’t actually think the South Korean birthrate will stay this low for decades, or that its population will drop from today’s roughly 51 million to the single-digit millions that my thought experiment suggests.
本着此种乐观精神，我实际上并不认为韩国生育率会在几十年内都如此之低，也不认为其人口将从今天的近5100万锐减到我此前推断的几百万人。
digit表示“（0到9的任一）数字”，英文解释为“A digit is a written symbol for any of the ten numbers from 0 to 9.”
举个🌰：
Her telephone number differs from mine by one digit.
她的电话号码跟我的差一个数字。
But I do believe the estimates that project a plunge to fewer than 35 million people by the late 2060s — and that decline alone may be enough to thrust Korean society into crisis.
但我确实相信，到本世纪60年代末，韩国人口将降至不到3500万人，光是这样的跌幅就足以令韩国社会陷入危机了。
plunge/plʌndʒ/可以作动词，也可以作名词，
1）表示“使突然前冲（或下落）”，英文解释为“to move or make sb/sth move suddenly forwards and/or downwards”
举个🌰：
She lost her balance and plunged 100 feet to her death.
她没有站稳，从100英尺的高处跌下摔死了。
2）表示“骤降”，英文解释为“If an amount or rate plunges, it decreases quickly and suddenly.”
举个🌰：
His weight began to plunge.（动词）
他的体重开始骤然下降。
Japan’s banks are in trouble because of bad loans and the stock market plunge.（名词）
日本各家银行处于困境，缘于不良贷款以及股市的暴跌。
3）plunge (sb/sth) into sth表示“（使）陷入；（使）经历”，英文解释为“to suddenly experience a bad situation or unhappiness, or to make someone or something suddenly experience a bad situation or unhappiness”
举个🌰：
He was plunged into despair when his wife left him.
他妻子离开他时，他一下子陷入绝望之中。
📍类似的表达「暴跌」的词有：plummet，tank，sink，slump，…
📍
slump表示“（价值等）暴跌”，英文解释为“If something such as the value of something slumps, it falls suddenly and by a large amount.”举个🌰：
Net profits slumped by 25%.
净利润暴跌了25%。
📍
plummet/ˈplʌmɪt/ 表示“（数量、比率、价格）暴跌”，英文解释为“If an amount, rate, or price plummets, it decreases quickly by a large amount.”举个🌰：
Her spirits plummeted at the thought of meeting him again.
一想到又要见到他，她的心情便直往下沉。
📍
tank，熟词僻义，作名词是坦克的意思，作动词有“表现得很糟糕，快速减少，衰落，下跌”的含义，英文解释为“If something such as a stock price or a movie tanks, it performs very badly, for example because it loses a lot of money.”举个🌰：
Tech stocks have tanked.
科技股票暴跌了。
There will be a choice between accepting steep economic decline as the age pyramid rapidly inverts, or trying to welcome immigrants on a scale far beyond the numbers that are already destabilizing Western Europe. There will be inevitable abandonment of the elderly, vast ghost towns and ruined high rises, and emigration by young people who see no future as custodians of a retirement community. And at some point there will quite possibly be an invasion from North Korea (current fertility rate: 1.8), if its southern neighbor struggles to keep a capable army in the field.
韩国将面临一个选择：要么忍受随着年龄结构迅速倒转而引发的经济崩溃；要么尝试接纳规模远超西欧的移民（西欧移民已经造成社会不稳）。不可避免将会出现的是，老年人被遗弃，大片的鬼城和破败的高楼大厦，以及年轻人纷纷移民，因为他们看不到负担一个国家的退休老人有何未来可言。而且，如果韩国难以维持一支有作战能力的军队，它很可能将在某一刻被朝鲜（目前生育率1.8）入侵。
steep/stiːp/1）表示“（上升或下降）急剧的，大起大落的”，英文解释为“A steep rise or fall is one that goes very quickly from low to high or from high to low.”
举个🌰：
There has been a steep increase/rise in prices.
物价飞涨。
2）表示“（斜坡）陡的，陡峭的”，英文解释为“(of a slope) rising or falling at a sharp angle”如：a steep slope 陡坡。
3）表示“（尤指价格）过高的，高得离谱的”，英文解释为“(especially of prices) too much, or more than is reasonable”
举个🌰：
We enjoyed our meal at the restaurant, but the bill was a bit steep.
我们喜欢这家餐厅的饭菜，但价格高得有点儿离谱了。
pyramid/ˈpɪr.ə.mɪd/1）表示“棱锥体”，英文解释为“a solid object with a square base and four triangular sides that form a point at the top”
2）表示“摆成金字塔形的一堆东西”，英文解释为“a pile of things that has the shape of a pyramid”
举个🌰：
Many organizations have a pyramid structure (= there are fewer people at the top levels of them than there are at the bottom).
许多团体是金字塔式的组织结构。
invert/ɪnˈvɜːt/表示“使倒置；使颠倒”，英文解释为“to turn something upside down or change the order of two things”
举个🌰：
In some languages, the word order in questions is inverted (= the verb comes before the subject of the sentence).
在有些语言里，疑问句的词序是颠倒的。
custodian/kʌsˈtəʊ.di.ən/表示“监护人；监管人；看护人；保管人”，英文解释为“a person with responsibility for protecting or taking care of something or keeping something in good condition”
举个🌰：
the custodian of a museum/castle
博物馆/城堡的看护人。
For the rest of the world, meanwhile, the South Korean example demonstrates that the birth dearth can get much worse much faster than the general trend in rich countries so far.
与此同时，对世界各国来说，韩国的案例表明，富裕国家当下的低生育率趋势是可能以更快的速度恶化的。
demonstrate/ˈdem.ən.streɪt/表示“显示；表明”，英文解释为“to show or make something clear”
举个🌰：
Research has demonstrated that babies can recognize their mother’s voice very soon after birth.
研究表明，婴儿出生后很快就能辨识母亲的声音。
The current trend in South Korea is more than just a grim surprise. It’s a warning about what’s possible for us.
韩国眼下的趋势并不只是一场前景堪忧的意外。那是对我们可能面临的未来的一种警告。
grim/ɡrɪm/1）表示“严酷的；令人沮丧的”，英文解释为“A situation or piece of information that is grim is unpleasant, depressing, and difficult to accept.”
举个🌰：
There was further grim news yesterday.
昨天有更令人沮丧的新闻。
2）表示“（地方）阴沉的”，英文解释为“A place that is grim is unattractive and depressing in appearance.”
举个🌰：
The city might be grim at first, but there is a vibrancy and excitement.
这个城市也许一开始沉闷，但它有一种活力和激情。
词汇盘点
striking、 case study、 hang、 replacement、 distinctive、 territory、 provisional、 unpack、 sustain、 exceed、 turnover、 columnist、 alarmist、 assume、 adaptation、 pessimism、 trajectory、 underrate、 flourish、 fertility、 convert、 digit、 plunge、steep、 pyramid、 invert、 custodian、 demonstrate、 grim
词汇助记 By ChatGPT
A striking case study unpacked how a territory’s steep fertility plunge converted pessimism into innovation. Columnists assumed grim trajectories, underrating the distinctive adaptations that flourished. Custodians of data demonstrated how digital turnover exceeded expectations, hanging onto provisional successes and inverting the population pyramid sustainably.
Summary
